the math is all correct but for some reason i keep losing money even with several pleasant medium volatility moments.. i mean i recover some losses but never enough. i should have done better. this week i had to shift some positions between mt4 and mt5, because mt5 had reached its allowed limit on leverage — cannot increase bets on losing positions even though half cash is still in game. today i modified the overall strategy again, a bit. why? because in total, between mt4 and mt5, i’m some 20% in negative.. far from being broke but i don’t feel comfortable with such a trend. a modification was necessary not to continue going into negative with such pace. will see. i like it, it’s interesting: hard during practice should mean easy in real life. friday evening should be with a better trading outlook, to turn losses on some currency pairs into profits. in any case i’m in for a long strategy, not for a fast and risky ‘game’.
so far the turning tides on forex haven’t been big enough to get my balance into positive and to begin another test. thus i’m going on with the current test (read previous posts) till i make some profit or at least recover all the losses. the negative balance is increasing again, slowly. nothing to do but to wait for a bigger turn in tide or at least bigger volatility on the same level, to recover losses and, if volatility permits, to make some profit on my selected currency pairs.
first of all thanks for advice N, at least for an attempt to give an advice. i appreciate your effort. below are some responses.
Unlikely, could be Swap charges
nope, nothing to do with swaps here. you probably missed the following: “today i noticed that some currency pairs are vacant (no positions) and some are with wrong polarity.”
You may better switch brokers, and while at it the platform as well.
Are you american ? If yes there are some additional rules the broker as to abide.
Btw: trust me, making money in markets is not just math.
And you can also be sure that EVERYTHING has been discovered already, the trick is simply to manage losses, done that properly even if your strategy is simply trowing dice and buy at odd/sell at even numbers.
i am proud to be not american.
“be sure that EVERYTHING has been discovered”? that sounds like a religious conviction, that everything is in the bible, no need to read nor to learn anything else, regardless that “god” had so bad vision he didn’t see farther than 200km (where all the biblical events happened), thought that earth is flat, had so bad memory couldn’t remember back more than 5000 years, and so on.
everything has NOT been discovered, that would be a very arrogant statement by anyone with scientific thinking. in mathematics there are every single week submitted literally thousands of new proofs, collectively around the world. many discoveries, especially in mathematics developed for stock market, are not necessarily made public, so there’s a lot to discover.
Im sure this problem can be bypassed easy and very likely even automated with requotes to be filled with smaller but matching orders
that’s true. i haven’t explored all the tools available as i have enough to do. i have also mentioned it in another post. right now i do everything manually with market orders. when i see that it won’t work, i will explore programmable options, beginning perhaps with pending orders, stops, etc. … problem with those is that i can’t see how well and when those orders are executed without being constantly online. so far i prefer to place market orders, oversee their execution, and sleep well or do other things without worrying about my portfolio on forex.
nice ride today on forex. even as i slept nicely this afternoon, i happened to wake up just on time for a pleasant volatility and to clock back some losses. on mt4 it went with no issues, but on mt5 i missed some of the ride because my market orders just continued being not filled — the prices changed too fast. i kept verifying prices and trying again and again, but i managed to make only about one quarter of the changes in my portfolio from which i expected to, with way lower gains as i saw them at some point. when the bigger ride was already over, perhaps after half an hour of continuously failed attempts, i got my orders filled in the bottom of the price ride. so, i missed quite an opportunity due to constantly rejected orders. because of this issue, trading on smartphone and occasionally on tablet, both with slow internet connection, i imagine it may take way longer than i expected to get into positive balance again and to generate profit. but no hurry for me — no real money at stake, just playing around with math and my formulas.
you would lose out in opportunity to generate profit in almost any business, not only on forex, if you don’t have enough money, thus the limits of how much you can increase the bets is unavoidable consequence with any amount of free cash you have. the total amount of cash you have considered to invest, to make money on forex, will also determine how small are your smallest initial bets — with a million set aside to generate profit you wouldn’t trade cents so to say, would you? these are given limits to begin calculating your strategy — the minimum bets to begin with, the initial size of portfolio (with enough space to enlarge portfolio, to ‘dilute’ risk when stakes hit sealing of your capacity to handle the bets further), the selection of currency pairs with determined regular (somewhat stable but big enough) volatility, the maximum betting size for each position (each currency pair), the size of the steps (increasing and decreasing size calculated separately) between closed and new positions while losing/gaining, the conditions to initiate a change (not too early, not too late), the size of changes in steps (on higher bets the changes must be bigger), etc. — nothing must be left for hazard, all must be looked into in advance. you can’t know with certainty how currency market will behave (you can’t know in advance all the events that may trigger changes in currency values) but you do can make a rough estimate to take reasonable risk. without taking any amount of risk you would be forced to trade ‘cents’ with millions in reserve, which wouldn’t be worth it. thus while investing on forex the right currency pairs to gamble on must be taken very seriously, besides other calculations.. the reasonable limits, amounts, sizes and so on.
it is night here in italy. i woke up and after visitng my fx accounts i got an idea which i immediately implemented.. will see how it continues now. that should be the safest method of all, with a very long time implementation, perhaps even with no need to close all positions and to start over after generating profit (unlikely however). later i will think more thoroughly about all the mathematical implications, and if necessary i can continue as before, with my well tested strategy.
for the modified strategy to work i had to increase stakes on some of the currency pairs in such a way that it wouldn’t affect my previous method if i would decide to roll it back and continue the old way. in just a few weeks or even days i will see the results, so far i have time to think and to make calculations.
a very important part of the new strategy is that it will allow me to track any changes to my positions very easily — if there are any mistakes on my part or modification attempts by brokers, i will notice the changes immediately with a quick look at all my positions.. now i keep the positions mathematically related between them. if you make a change in one position, you will need to modify many others, which will be too obvious. no more errors possible. i expect this modified method to hold out the tests.
in current situation of my fx accounts i may easily take a week off not even looking at them — the worst thing that may happen is that i may lose an opportunity to generate profit during high volatility. if the market keeps moving steadily in one direction i won’t lose much money (nor make much) as the bets are placed in reverse on the accounts, with not too big difference. the most you go in negative is when you exit losing positions to take new positions with increased bets, in attempt to generate higher profits later. but there’s a limit to risk, so, at some point you just stop increasing bets and ‘lie down’ in wait till tide will turn. you can even begin a parallel account to continue the same strategy with lower bets (not to waste time, to keep investing), while the other account is just waiting for right moment to continue trading. so, in theory you could operate several accounts, trading actively on those where stakes are on reasonable level. earlier or later the tide will turn — that’s the principle of random fluctuations — the market will never go in one direction for ever.