the challenge i have right now is to generate profit in relatively low volatility conditions. the two strategies i’ve been testing previously both have their issues. the increasing/decreasing strategy is costing too much in paid spreads, and the catching trends strategy is quite a sure loser in a long term. thus, to combine the two strategies mathematically, where it is clearly defined in which conditions to switch the strategy, is a challenge. for the initial test run i picked those conditions from my mind, relying on the experience in analysing random fluctuations for over twenty years, but the values may need to be changed depending on the results, adjusting to the particular behavior of forex, if it does behave differently from randomness, in a large scale.
even as the low/medium volatility is not the best for trading currencies, as of now i prefer to stick to the selected somewhat stable currencies and to figure out how to generate profit with the low volatility and slow trends, instead of betting on risky currency pairs with high volatility. some time ago i wrote that i don’t expect to find anything new, but i may have been wrong with the opinion that nothing new is to be found in my own formulas.. there are countless ways to combine the formulas and some combinations may still be hiding beneficial surprises in them, which i had overlooked previously.
it appears to me that i found a good combination of using two strategies at the same time: first trying to catch a trend and when the trend goes in a wrong direction, switching to the old strategy of increasing/decreasing bets. all that without the need to end one strategy closing all positions, to start all over with another one. lots of tests needs to be done even if the current test will show some promise. so far i’ve got the feeling that there’s something not right with the mt4 and mt5 apps.. there should not be only losses during tests — even if i had taken positions at random i should have never lost so much so fast, especially considering that my positions are balanced out — some positions should have generated large profit at least once, because many positions had big losses and my positions are largely taken in reverse, not to go broke during a crash of a single currency. but at random conditions all is possible — call it a bad luck if you will. i keep testing and thinking about how to tackle a fraud, if there is a fraud there in sense of an automated system not letting you to find out profitable strategies. honestly i’ve been lazy and busy enough to compare each currency pair with real values on other trading platforms.. they need to be monitored continuously then, not just once. if it goes on like this, sharply into negative on any taken position as soon as stakes get high, then i can verify the prices later with historical data. so far i’m considering it to be just a coincidence that while positions are with low bets they gain and with high bets they always lose.. much more data is needed, to come to a definite conclusion. the new combined strategy is only in my mind, which i just began implementing, thus some flaws can be detected, and the formulas adjusted accordingly.
it may seem that i change my strategies too fast, but as i’m having positions on two trading accounts on twenty currency pairs each, in reverse between them, then i don’t need much time to see where it is all heading to. when everything is going rapidly in negative direction with almost no exception on any taken position — with too small gains compared to losses — there must be something very wrong.. it almost seems that it cannot be just bad luck but you never know, in fact in theoretical rare circumstances it can. as always, i say that during testing with no real money at stake it is actually good to encounter very bad situations for training purposes, because in real life bad luck and mistakes do happen, and one needs to know how to tackle those situations, in the end to come out of negative balance with profit.