fx: my portfolio.

after analysing the situation in my portfolio and seeing the continuous trend, i decided to switch my current strategy. the new temporary strategy in long term will be a losing one, but in current currency market moves it is actually a safer way to generate profit. the problem with the previous strategy is that my selected currency pairs have too little volatility to make profit, while trending periods last too long. in very long periods the old strategy will definitely work, it is proven, but it keeps cash busy for too long — you can wait for a tide to turn for many months. with the new strategy, appliccable only during trending markets, the risk is way smaller, in sense of the necessary investment needed to generate large profit, but it only works during long periods of trending markets. as soon as tide turns i must terminate the gamble and to switch back to the old strategy. right now it appears to be the right decision because i don’t wish to increase bets on my losing positions — everything has its mathematically reasonable limit. i should have began with way smaller initial bets, but the reasons for such large investment right in the beginning are explained in my previous posts. in fact i was ignoring one of my own principles which is also described in my book Random Fluctuations [download my books for free]. it’s a good lesson to trust mathematics over your will to recover sudden unexpected losses fast. in current market conditions the switch of strategy makes total sense, while i can swich back to the old strategy on the level where i left it, when needed, when the market shows the right conditions for it. the test goes on.. i still have 80% from the initial cash available, to switch strategies when there are necessary conditions for a change.

the strategy of catching trends will not work on roulette, it is proven to be mathematically impossible. however, on stock market, in certain conditions, the strategy could do the trick. you must remember though to quit the strategy as soon as trending conditions go away. my way of catching trends also has a mathematical formula to it, not just sitting and waiting for the cash to come in. i’m about to find out if it is appliccable on forex.

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