fx: my portfolio.

it has very rapidly become clear that catching trends is more profitable (currently) than my old proven method of increasing/decreasing bets. more importantly, it needs less investment to begin with, to generate the same amount of profit. at least it’s my way of catching trends which shows promise.. there are definitely other ways of doing it which i’m not testing. the currently applied method i have borrowed from my countless computer simulations on trying to make profit on casino roulette — there it doesn’t work, it’s mathematically impossible. on forex however, even if the trends are short living and rare, in any meaningful sense, it is still enough to generate profit overcoming spreads. that’s my first impression, which may change. i got so curious about it now that i stopped the method of increasing/decreasing bets, continuing now on both trading platforms with the strategy of catching trends.

i’m still on the same level, close to 20% in negative, because i decreased my investment level several times for now — it is not wise to bet high when i’m not sure about the formulas which i’m currently using (testing), about how they perform on forex in a long term.. thus, even if i’m recovering losses it will take much longer than i accumulated the losses. my main goal is to come out of the negative balance with whatever strategy works on current market conditions, thus i’m not opening new trading accounts. i must rely on my experience and not to discard any failed tests as irrelevant.. therefore i change strategies as soon as i see the limitations of applied strategies on any given moment depending on market conditions.

i know what my increasing/decreasing formulas do in long term — i don’t need to prove them for myself, spending more years on learning the same thing. i need to adapt rapidly to any given market conditions to generate profit faster, and if a formula produces losses then to apply other formulas which suit better at the time. that’s more interesting too than making the same calculations over and over — it’s kind of reading the market’s behavior through the numbers, not guessing the market behavior by news or generally known global developments.

in fact i’m correcting and changing my strategies right now so frequently (as you have obviously noticed already) that i see no need to bother describing the changes in the blog anymore. the general principles of my strategies have been described.. i’m using them in different combinations trying to figure out the best configuration in any given moment.. which may or may not lead to a permanent compiled strategy. when i’ll publish the whole trading history of my current test on both mt4 and mt5 platforms, after getting into positive balance, then you can see for yourself what was going on.

so much i can tell that while i decided in favor of learning more about and testing the strategy of catching trends on both platforms, i balanced out again the currency pairs on each trading platform and reversed positions between the platforms. this is necessary to ensure that if the strategy works then it should work on both platforms, not being just a luck, a result of current market conditions turning out favoritely for me.

if you’re curious about how it all will end then just be patient.. one day i’ll publish the complete trading history of the current test on both trading platforms, and perhaps include it in the updated version of the book as well. the trading history of the current test may become thousands of pages long, thus including it in the book in full length may not be the best idea – i may publish it as a separate document to those who are interested to analyse my trading strategies deeper.


fx: my portfolio.

by now i’ve done some follow-up analysis of my portfolio, on how i ended up with such losses as described in my previous posts in category ‘trading’. what i found is that i had simply over-traded, which in the low volatility and slowly trending conditions meant that cumulative spreads had eaten away even those small profits which i succeeded to generate during some rare turns of tides on some currency pairs. (while during a significant volatility more trades with my strategy means more profit, in low volatility conditions it doesn’t play out that way).

my attempted solution which i practiced for couple of days: i doubled the required minimum price change before modifying positions. the mathematical reality is that bigger changes in prices are way more rare (exponentially negative). while before i was making hundreds of trades a day across my portfolio, then the last few days i made only tens of trades, mostly just watching the prices to fluctuate almost around the value of the spread, which didn’t allow to make any changes in portfolio. i did begin recovering losses, a tiny bit, but this would have meant that instead of generating a reasonable profit in average once a month, in similar market conditions i could be able to generate a reasonable profit in average only about once a year (before it would make sense to close all positions and to begin again with minimum bets). not good, but that’s the reality with low volatility currency pairs.

to counter this situation i had to abandon the balancing of currencies across one trading platform. i continue with the same currency pairs for the test’s sake, but now i take only positive positions (only ‘buy’), which in some sense reduces the risk in case if one currency should crash. as you know, shorting is always way more risky due to the fact that losses can in theory go up to infinity (you will go broke faster), while if you go long you will only risk the total amount on the taken positions.

for balancing risks, now between the trading platforms only, i separated again the strategies: on mt4 i continue with my well tested increasing/decreasing method, and on mt5, exactly with the same currency pairs, also betting ‘long’ (buy) only, i’m after the price trends. thus, if on one trading platform i should lose then on the other platform i will gain.

that’s my current tactics to try to generate profit in low volatility conditions, will see what results it will produce. today i already began recovering losses several times faster than the last few days (surprisingly on both trading platforms), but it may just be a coincidence. will see how the situation develops further.

is truth absolute or relative?

i think that truth is both relative and absolute, but some truth is only absolute, like for example mathematical truth. personal truth can at times be relative, as it is well demonstrated with the story of blind people trying to describe an elephant by touching with hands — all of them are in essence talking about the same thing, but as they’re blind and cannot see whole the elephant, then everyone has a different understanding, their truth about what the elephant is, depending on touching the tail, ear, leg, trunk or the body from its side. they will never come to a compromise or an agreement as long as they won’t take others’ position for a while, to get into others’ perspective. the same holds true almost in everything — the more complex things we’re describing the more chance there is that our truth of the reality is different.. thus we have relative truth. but in fact the truth is absolute, beginning with mathematics, where everyone can see the same thing and to verify it. as mathematics is the language of universe, then most probably all truth in universe is also absolute, but we may never be able to find out the absolute truth due to our limited senses. thus, for us, some truths will always remain relative.. at least for as long as we’re not in the singularity.

Disrupting genetic processes reverses ageing.

Research has shed new light on genetic processes that may one day lead to the development of therapies that can slow, or even reverse, how our cells age.

A study led by the University of Exeter Medical School has found that certain genes and pathways that regulate splicing factors – a group of proteins in our body that tell our genes how to behave – play a key role in the ageing process. Significantly, the team found that disrupting these genetic processes could reverse signs of ageing in cells.

read the full article..

fx: combining strategies.

the challenge i have right now is to generate profit in relatively low volatility conditions. the two strategies i’ve been testing previously both have their issues. the increasing/decreasing strategy is costing too much in paid spreads, and the catching trends strategy is quite a sure loser in a long term. thus, to combine the two strategies mathematically, where it is clearly defined in which conditions to switch the strategy, is a challenge. for the initial test run i picked those conditions from my mind, relying on the experience in analysing random fluctuations for over twenty years, but the values may need to be changed depending on the results, adjusting to the particular behavior of forex, if it does behave differently from randomness, in a large scale.

even as the low/medium volatility is not the best for trading currencies, as of now i prefer to stick to the selected somewhat stable currencies and to figure out how to generate profit with the low volatility and slow trends, instead of betting on risky currency pairs with high volatility. some time ago i wrote that i don’t expect to find anything new, but i may have been wrong with the opinion that nothing new is to be found in my own formulas.. there are countless ways to combine the formulas and some combinations may still be hiding beneficial surprises in them, which i had overlooked previously.