fx: my portfolio.

by now i’ve done some follow-up analysis of my portfolio, on how i ended up with such losses as described in my previous posts in category ‘trading’. what i found is that i had simply over-traded, which in the low volatility and slowly trending conditions meant that cumulative spreads had eaten away even those small profits which i succeeded to generate during some rare turns of tides on some currency pairs. (while during a significant volatility more trades with my strategy means more profit, in low volatility conditions it doesn’t play out that way).

my attempted solution which i practiced for couple of days: i doubled the required minimum price change before modifying positions. the mathematical reality is that bigger changes in prices are way more rare (exponentially negative). while before i was making hundreds of trades a day across my portfolio, then the last few days i made only tens of trades, mostly just watching the prices to fluctuate almost around the value of the spread, which didn’t allow to make any changes in portfolio. i did begin recovering losses, a tiny bit, but this would have meant that instead of generating a reasonable profit in average once a month, in similar market conditions i could be able to generate a reasonable profit in average only about once a year (before it would make sense to close all positions and to begin again with minimum bets). not good, but that’s the reality with low volatility currency pairs.

to counter this situation i had to abandon the balancing of currencies across one trading platform. i continue with the same currency pairs for the test’s sake, but now i take only positive positions (only ‘buy’), which in some sense reduces the risk in case if one currency should crash. as you know, shorting is always way more risky due to the fact that losses can in theory go up to infinity (you will go broke faster), while if you go long you will only risk the total amount on the taken positions.

for balancing risks, now between the trading platforms only, i separated again the strategies: on mt4 i continue with my well tested increasing/decreasing method, and on mt5, exactly with the same currency pairs, also betting ‘long’ (buy) only, i’m after the price trends. thus, if on one trading platform i should lose then on the other platform i will gain.

that’s my current tactics to try to generate profit in low volatility conditions, will see what results it will produce. today i already began recovering losses several times faster than the last few days (surprisingly on both trading platforms), but it may just be a coincidence. will see how the situation develops further.

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is truth absolute or relative?

i think that truth is both relative and absolute, but some truth is only absolute, like for example mathematical truth. personal truth can at times be relative, as it is well demonstrated with the story of blind people trying to describe an elephant by touching with hands — all of them are in essence talking about the same thing, but as they’re blind and cannot see whole the elephant, then everyone has a different understanding, their truth about what the elephant is, depending on touching the tail, ear, leg, trunk or the body from its side. they will never come to a compromise or an agreement as long as they won’t take others’ position for a while, to get into others’ perspective. the same holds true almost in everything — the more complex things we’re describing the more chance there is that our truth of the reality is different.. thus we have relative truth. but in fact the truth is absolute, beginning with mathematics, where everyone can see the same thing and to verify it. as mathematics is the language of universe, then most probably all truth in universe is also absolute, but we may never be able to find out the absolute truth due to our limited senses. thus, for us, some truths will always remain relative.. at least for as long as we’re not in the singularity.

Disrupting genetic processes reverses ageing.

Research has shed new light on genetic processes that may one day lead to the development of therapies that can slow, or even reverse, how our cells age.

A study led by the University of Exeter Medical School has found that certain genes and pathways that regulate splicing factors – a group of proteins in our body that tell our genes how to behave – play a key role in the ageing process. Significantly, the team found that disrupting these genetic processes could reverse signs of ageing in cells.

read the full article..
https://www.technology.org/2018/09/14/disrupting-genetic-processes-reverses-ageing-in-human-cells/

fx: combining strategies.

the challenge i have right now is to generate profit in relatively low volatility conditions. the two strategies i’ve been testing previously both have their issues. the increasing/decreasing strategy is costing too much in paid spreads, and the catching trends strategy is quite a sure loser in a long term. thus, to combine the two strategies mathematically, where it is clearly defined in which conditions to switch the strategy, is a challenge. for the initial test run i picked those conditions from my mind, relying on the experience in analysing random fluctuations for over twenty years, but the values may need to be changed depending on the results, adjusting to the particular behavior of forex, if it does behave differently from randomness, in a large scale.

even as the low/medium volatility is not the best for trading currencies, as of now i prefer to stick to the selected somewhat stable currencies and to figure out how to generate profit with the low volatility and slow trends, instead of betting on risky currency pairs with high volatility. some time ago i wrote that i don’t expect to find anything new, but i may have been wrong with the opinion that nothing new is to be found in my own formulas.. there are countless ways to combine the formulas and some combinations may still be hiding beneficial surprises in them, which i had overlooked previously.

fx: my portfolio.

it appears to me that i found a good combination of using two strategies at the same time: first trying to catch a trend and when the trend goes in a wrong direction, switching to the old strategy of increasing/decreasing bets. all that without the need to end one strategy closing all positions, to start all over with another one. lots of tests needs to be done even if the current test will show some promise. so far i’ve got the feeling that there’s something not right with the mt4 and mt5 apps.. there should not be only losses during tests — even if i had taken positions at random i should have never lost so much so fast, especially considering that my positions are balanced out — some positions should have generated large profit at least once, because many positions had big losses and my positions are largely taken in reverse, not to go broke during a crash of a single currency. but at random conditions all is possible — call it a bad luck if you will. i keep testing and thinking about how to tackle a fraud, if there is a fraud there in sense of an automated system not letting you to find out profitable strategies. honestly i’ve been lazy and busy enough to compare each currency pair with real values on other trading platforms.. they need to be monitored continuously then, not just once. if it goes on like this, sharply into negative on any taken position as soon as stakes get high, then i can verify the prices later with historical data. so far i’m considering it to be just a coincidence that while positions are with low bets they gain and with high bets they always lose.. much more data is needed, to come to a definite conclusion. the new combined strategy is only in my mind, which i just began implementing, thus some flaws can be detected, and the formulas adjusted accordingly.

it may seem that i change my strategies too fast, but as i’m having positions on two trading accounts on twenty currency pairs each, in reverse between them, then i don’t need much time to see where it is all heading to. when everything is going rapidly in negative direction with almost no exception on any taken position — with too small gains compared to losses — there must be something very wrong.. it almost seems that it cannot be just bad luck but you never know, in fact in theoretical rare circumstances it can. as always, i say that during testing with no real money at stake it is actually good to encounter very bad situations for training purposes, because in real life bad luck and mistakes do happen, and one needs to know how to tackle those situations, in the end to come out of negative balance with profit.